Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.756035 24.764103 28.006849 31.758748 35.976435 40.567472 45.939746
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.314073 21.389171 26.119602 32.001750 39.104516 47.388165 57.764891
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.044538 19.585247 25.110515 32.301167 41.382094 52.436750 66.879380
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.051396 17.804526 23.835944 32.008069 42.743471 56.311330 74.697689
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.749382 16.689269 23.187993 32.302451 44.684678 60.838945 83.416342
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.938013 16.111693 23.141776 33.309936 47.542064 66.638953 94.064848
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.831024 14.990704 22.220387 32.986291 48.484403 69.835248 101.287420
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.493918 13.397857 20.478302 31.324919 47.369959 70.043498 104.270638
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.015672 13.025294 20.450885 32.111184 49.773172 75.287996 114.626804
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.606914 12.714230 20.474874 32.948554 52.267147 80.756703 125.556599
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.001608 12.035298 19.874934 32.769610 53.183012 83.904214 133.157187
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.398300 11.303633 19.129089 32.292164 53.577796 86.245546 139.604537
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.942826 10.789435 18.708071 32.327109 54.817187 90.006334 148.546406
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.617411 10.468636 18.577718 32.822597 56.819785 95.059918 159.786296
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.275171 10.085062 18.305889 33.047290 58.365500 99.430348 170.108344
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.880230 9.571440 17.769479 32.774319 59.044242 102.405283 178.276987
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.613401 9.267802 17.572554 33.066580 60.682438 107.013105 189.331531
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.479650 9.201394 17.790011 34.099222 63.650353 113.974208 204.650582
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.160164 8.750822 17.274368 33.767469 64.178934 116.794818 213.018648
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.686933 7.957198 16.063434 32.069580 62.141662 115.059376 213.380432
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.572129 7.872988 16.186121 32.873190 64.705209 121.493588 228.365806
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.469823 7.805405 16.334055 33.729137 67.403787 128.280437 244.269075
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.254914 7.483954 15.960555 33.546222 68.127177 131.527651 253.915493